US Oil Prices at Risk of Further Gains as Iran Blockade Chokes Global Supply

Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is choking global oil supply, and US oil prices face another risky session on Monday as the conflict enters its third week. Analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast pump prices rising to $3.80–$3.85 per gallon, with $4 gasoline still a possible near-term outcome. The unresolved military and diplomatic situation has turned global energy markets into a zone of persistent instability.
The chain of events began on February 28, when US and Israeli forces first struck Iran, setting off three weeks of escalating military action that has systematically disrupted regional oil infrastructure. The national gasoline average has climbed 23% to $3.70 from under $3 before the conflict started. Energy economists have noted that sustained supply disruptions of this nature typically embed price increases for extended periods, even after conflicts end.
The targeting of Kharg Island by US forces on Friday was a pivotal escalation, as the facility serves as the backbone of Iranian oil export operations. Simultaneously, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has locked roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply away from international buyers. Brent crude fluctuated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude settled around $94 after testing the $100 level the previous day.
California motorists have been hit hardest, with statewide averages exceeding $5 per gallon and some Los Angeles stations listing prices above $8. Commercial diesel users in the logistics sector face potential costs of $5.05 to $5.15 per gallon. Senior executives from Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have each briefed White House staff on escalating supply risks, with Exxon’s Darren Woods warning explicitly about speculative trading that could further accelerate price rises.
US equity markets started Monday on a positive note, with the S&P 500 gaining around 1% after oil prices softened temporarily. Major oil producers have seen their stock values surge to historic highs since the conflict began, even as consumers at the pump feel squeezed. The trajectory of US oil prices will remain tied to military developments until a diplomatic resolution to the conflict is reached.