Energy market veterans were drawing uncomfortable parallels on Monday between the current crisis and the severe disruptions that roiled global energy markets in 2022. Gas prices surging 40% in a single session, oil hitting multi-year highs, and shipping companies suspending operations through critical maritime routes — the echoes of 2022 are clear. But several analysts warned that the current situation has the potential to be even more severe.
In 2022, the disruption to European energy markets stemmed primarily from the loss of pipeline gas supply following geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Painful as it was, that crisis had clear geographic boundaries and could be partially addressed by redirecting LNG cargoes from other sources. The current crisis is different in a crucial respect: it is disrupting the very infrastructure through which LNG and oil are shipped globally, rather than simply affecting one supply route among several.
The shutdown of Qatar’s LNG production — removing potentially 20% of global supply — would alone represent a crisis of considerable severity. Combined with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the suspension of Suez Canal transits, and attacks on commercial shipping, the current disruption is arguably more structurally damaging to global energy supply chains than what occurred in 2022.
European gas prices, which had partially recovered from their 2022 peaks, surged 41% on Monday to €45 per megawatt hour. UK gas prices rose 40% to 110p a therm. While these levels remain below the extreme peaks seen during the worst of the 2022 crisis, the speed and scale of the move was alarming. Energy experts warned that bills for homes and businesses could rise significantly if the disruption is not quickly resolved.
The key question for markets is whether the current crisis will follow the pattern of 2022 — severe but ultimately manageable — or whether the simultaneous disruption of so many critical energy infrastructure elements will produce a more sustained and damaging outcome. The answer depends heavily on the duration and resolution of the military conflict, and on whether the world’s major energy consumers have sufficient reserves and alternative supply capacity to weather an extended period of disruption.
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