Black smoke hung over Tehran for hours after Israeli strikes set multiple oil storage facilities ablaze, a visual testament to the dramatic escalation of a conflict that was now pushing global crude prices above $100 per barrel. The attacks marked a pivotal moment in a war that had been expanding steadily for over a week.
Four oil workers were killed in the strikes, and the city of Karaj, near Tehran, was also hit, with explosions that could be heard across a wide area. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued an unambiguous warning: if attacks on energy infrastructure continued, similar strikes would be carried out against oil facilities in neighboring Gulf countries.
That warning carried immediate weight. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait all reported being struck by Iranian drones and missiles over the same weekend. Saudi forces intercepted 15 drones, a desalination plant in Bahrain was hit, and two civilians were killed in Saudi Arabia. An American service member also died from injuries sustained in an Iranian strike, bringing US fatalities to seven.
Iran’s internal politics added a new dimension of risk. The clerical assembly selected Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader following his father’s death, appointing him through what the assembly described as a decisive vote. The selection marked the first hereditary transfer of Iran’s highest office and was viewed by analysts as likely to deepen, rather than resolve, the crisis.
The United States worked to calm markets, pledging not to strike Iranian oil facilities and predicting short-term supply disruptions. But with Iran accounting for roughly four percent of global production, and with fighting showing no signs of abating, traders were pricing in significant long-term uncertainty.
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